Financial Management White Papers
Improving Fiscal Policy in the EU: The Case for Independent Forecasts
Overview Empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of a forecast bias in the budgetary process of several large euro-area countries. This forecast bias negatively affects the fiscal policy-making process. To remedy this bias in the present process of fiscal policymaking, this paper suggests the establishment of an independent forecasting authority, i.e. independent of the ministry of finance and the government, with the sole task of producing forecasts of growth and of other variables crucial for the budgetary process. The importance and usefulness of the proposal is corroborated by the experience of a small number of Member States which already apply similar arrangements.
| Publisher | European Union | File Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Date Published | July 2004 | Downloads | 1 |
| Format | White Papers | ||
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