Financial Management White Papers

Learning to Trust Lula: Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil

Overview In this paper, the high Brazilian country risk in 2002 and the Sudden Stop in capital flows is interpreted as reflecting "political equilibrium" in a context where, for the first time, a charismatic Left-wing leader had a strong run for office. The paper shows how, for reasons suggested by Alesina, sovereign spreads will move in line with opinion polls, rising with the popularity of Left-wing president.

Further White Paper Details
PublisherUniversity of Warwick File FormatPDF, requires Acrobat Rdr 5
Date PublishedJuly 2004 Downloads1
FormatWhite Papers   
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