Economic Modeling White Papers
Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series
Overview Business cycles can be defined as deviations of macroeconomic data from an underlying trend which, however, is not observable in general. Since the decomposition of a time series into a trend and a remaining ‘cyclic ’part is in principle arbitrary, any attempt to identify, or approximate, business cycles has to be based on economic theory. In this paper we pursue an approach based on economic theory to illustrate possible shortcomings of widely-used detrending methods. We analyze a simple model of economic growth and business cycles in which investment and technical progress are stochastic.
| Publisher | University of Zurich | File Format | PDF, requires Acrobat Rdr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Date Published | May 2001 | Downloads | 129 |
| Format | White Papers | ||
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